• Gary Sandler
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    Published 18 August 2017

    LAS CRUCES – Is our market nearing its seasonal peak?

    According to statistics from the Las Cruces Association of Realtors, approximately 57 percent of our annual property sales take place during the spring and summer “selling season.” Sales are typically slowest during December and January, and peak around June or July and sometimes in August.

    So where are we in this year’s cycle? The statistics will provide a few clues.

    When compared to July of 2016, this year’s July sales statistics appear to be encouraging. Overall, sales of new and existing homes, townhomes and condominiums were up by nine units, or 5.7 percent, over last July’s total. When this July’s stats are compared with June, just one month earlier, the picture changes significantly. Local Realtors sold 31 fewer properties in July than they did in June, posting a 15.7 percent decline from the prior month’s production.

    When viewed as separate components, new-home sales and sales of existing homes essentially followed the same track.

    On the new-home side of the July year-over-year statistics, both prices and production posted positive gains. The average new-home price of $211,428 posted in July was a $36,739, or 14.5 percent, improvement over the $184,689 average price reported 12-months earlier. However, July’s average price also represented a $5,469, or 2.5 percent, decline from the $216,897 average price reported in June.

    The average price of the existing homes sold in July rose by $2,124, or 1.1 percent, when compared with July of 2016, rising to $193,127 from the $191,003 average price reported at that time. As with the new-home component, July’s average price also fell short of June’s average price, dropping $6,330, or 3.2 percent, below the $197,333 average price posted one month earlier.

    So, are the declines in production and average prices a sign that our market is beginning to transition out of our annual sweet spot? By themselves, no. The one statistic that’s missing from the mix is the number of pending sales.

    A sale is considered pending at the moment a purchase agreement is signed. Sales typically close within 30 to 60 days of that occurrence, so the statistic is an excellent indicator of how many closings will take place a month-or-two ahead. As of Aug. 15, the number of pending sales is higher than it has been over the past few months and is continuing to rise.

    Based on that statistic alone, it appears that our market has not yet reached its annual peak.

    See you at closing!

    Gary Sandler is a full-time Realtor and president of Gary Sandler Inc., Realtors in Las Cruces. He can be reached at 575-642-2292 or Gary@GarySandler.com

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      Gary Sandler